Booms and Busts: Fantasy football's biggest surprise in Week 6 could end up being a one-hit wonder - Yahoo Sports

Oct 14, 2024

Be careful before you meander into that Tampa Bay-New Orleans boxscore. I know it sounds delightful. There were 78 total points! There were 897 yards of offense! Both teams have several must-start fantasy options, right?

So of course the fantasy superstar from this game was Sean Tucker, unheralded running back of the Buccaneers. Because that's how fantasy goes sometimes.

First, let's start with the Tampa Bay players you likely used for fantasy. Baker Mayfield is a carnival sometimes, but he's also producing most weeks. Mayfield threw for 325 yards and four passing touchdowns, offsetting three interceptions and landing him at 28.8 fantasy points. It's his third straight game over the 20-point mark, and he was sitting at QB2 with just SNF and MNF left on the slate. The Buccaneers have sailed past 30 points in four of their games this year, an offense you can generally trust.

Chris Godwin went off against the Saints secondary, rocking an 11-125-2 line on 13 targets. He's had at least five receptions in every game and the shift to a slot-heavier role seems to agree with him. Godwin needed a bigger role because Mike Evans was dealing with an undisclosed injury for most of the day, limping through the first half and briefly visiting the locker room. He only had one target in the second half and finished 2-34-0 on six targets. Variance bites us all sometimes. Cade Otton only had two catches on his six targets, but one of them went for a short touchdown. You'll take that during the Tight End Blackout of 2024.

Bucky Irving picked up the backfield start with Rachaad White unavailable and was fine, but not quite the smash we hoped for (14-81-1 rushing, 2-24-0 receiving). That's good for 17.5 fantasy points, and a slot in the top 10 with two games left to play. But Irving has more company in the backfield than we expected, with second-year back Sean Tucker crashing the party.

Tucker flashed with an early 36-yard receiving touchdown and he looked tireless as the close-it-out back at the end, running over and around gassed defenders in the fourth quarter. It added up to 136 yards on the ground, 56 yards through the air and two touchdowns on 17 touches. Say hello to 32.7 fantasy points, largely ignored in Yahoo leagues. Tucker's roster tag merely rose to 1% on Sunday morning, even after White was officially scratched.

Tucker's had a meandering football journey. He broke out in 2021 as a sophomore at Syracuse, rolling up 1,496 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns, earning first-team All-ACC honors. Averaging 6.1 yards per rush and 12.8 yards per catch, he was on his way to stardom.

Tucker's stats fell back in his junior year, in part because the Syracuse offensive line collapsed. And then he went undrafted in the spring of 2023, largely because of a previously undiagnosed heart condition that kept him from running drills at the combine.

The Buccaneers added Tucker as a free agent and he was on the roster last season, with limited and mediocre results (15 carries, 23 yards). He only had three touches in the first five weeks of this year, before stepping into a key role Sunday.

It reminds us that there are several possible NFL stars just waiting to be discovered, if only they get an opportunity. Tucker probably needs an injury to White or Irving to have current fantasy relevance, but maybe there's something from this performance that the Buccaneers can't unsee.

As for Spencer Rattler's starting debut for the Saints, we'd like to unsee a fair amount of it. He threw a couple of picks, he had a fumble, he took five sacks. It didn't help that Chris Olave (concussion) was lost on the first series of the game, though Rattler showed no chemistry with WR Rashid Shaheed (1-11-0, seven targets). As is common with backup quarterbacks, the featured receiver was a surprise player not seen as a primary starter: Bub Means logged a 5-45-1 line on eight targets.

Volume and some touchdown deodorant saved Alvin Kamara's day: just 64 total yards, but he had five catches and scored once. Nine different players drew a target and no one got past 54 yards; Rattler's obviously a work-in-progress while Derek Carr is not available.

The thrill-a-minute Buccaneers get Baltimore and Atlanta the next two weeks, so get your popcorn ready. The Saints could struggle to move the ball the rest of this month, facing the Broncos and Chargers.

Kmet not only scored twice en route to 21.5 fantasy points in the London win over Jacksonville, but he saw the field plenty (57 snaps, 27 routes) while Gerald Everett (18 snaps, nine routes) was a non-factor. Bears OC Shane Waldron can be difficult to trust sometimes, but he seems to have accepted that Kmet deserves to be a full-time player while Everett is just a support piece. Kmet was the TE7 and TE8 the last two seasons, and he's on pace to exceed that in 2024.

It's bizarre that the Jaguars won't target Brian Thomas Jr. off the bus — six looks simply isn't enough for their most dynamic player — but at least Evan Engram hit the ground running, catching all 10 of his looks for a 10-102-0 day. Engram did lose one fumble, but he was nonetheless PPR gold for the struggling Jags. Chicago's defense is formidable but it was still disappointing to see Tank Bigsby limited to 24 yards on seven carries.

Say this for the Patriots offense, at least they opened things up with Maye. Sure, the offensive line is a mess and the skill talent could be better, but Maye still dropped back 37 times (against 26 team runs) and offered 243 yards and three touchdowns, playing catchup against Houston. The two picks, the four sacks; that's life with a rookie quarterback. But DeMario Douglas (6-91-2) and Hunter Henry (3-41-1) both came home for fantasy, and it's nice to at least have another offense worth considering as we navigate the bye week schedule. The Patriots head to London for the Jacksonville breakfast game next week.

There are a lot of stars in Baltimore, so a game without a touchdown can get lost in the shuffle. But Zay Flowers looked like a slinky against Washington, a gorgeous 9-132-0 clinic in the first half, catching all of his targets. Alas, the Ravens were playing clock ball in the second half and Flowers didn't see a target in the final 30 minutes. But for all the time we spend trying to figure out Baltimore's tight end room (hey, Mark Andrews scored!), don't lose sight of the emerging superstar on the outside.

The Commanders weren't able to establish Terry McLaurin on the deeper routes, but two short touchdowns spend well for fantasy. It's refreshing to see McLaurin finally playing with an above-average quarterback in the NFL. Jayden Daniels had a few hiccups at Baltimore, but it's something that he can play a less-than-stellar game and still give us over 20 fantasy points. The sledding will be much easier against Carolina next week.

If you've seen one Deshaun Watson game, you've seen them all. He was held to 168 passing yards at Philadelphia, took five sacks and couldn't direct a touchdown drive. Failure has many parents, of course — there were dropped passes and procedural penalties; I worry about Nick Chubb trying to run behind this shaky offensive line. But Watson continues to look like a man beaten down physically and mentally every week, even if the Browns continue to stick to their sunk-cost quarterback.

• Daniel Jones was one of the misses of the week, but maybe that's no surprise given that the bust came at home. For Jones's career, he has 27 touchdown passes against 30 picks at home, along with a 77.9 rating. Those numbers tidy up on the road: 41 touchdowns, just 14 picks, 91.8 rating. I'd never want to consider this kind of stat without a deep sample, but maybe we're deep enough to start applying it forward.

• The crowding in the Green Bay receiving room can be a little tricky, but all paths lead to Jordan Love, who's playing at a high level. He's thrown 12 touchdowns in four games and has multiple touchdown passes in his last eight starts. This is the dreamy type of fantasy option — high upside and high floor. Matt LaFleur is one of the five best play-callers in the league.

• Although Josh Jacobs is in his sixth season and Emanuel Wilson is merely in his second, Jacobs is only one year older. Jacobs isn't going to lose his job over a 4.3 YPC and 49.1% success rate, but note Wilson has better efficiency (5.0 and 59.5%) over a smaller sample. If nothing else, Wilson belongs on the list of preferred contingency backs. Again, you're investing in a premium offense.

• The Kimani Vidal touchdown was fun, a divine wheel route, but he's just a secondary part of the offense right now — don't miss the 27 touches J.K. Dobbins piled up. Dobbins already has RB4, RB5 and RB11 finishes on his 2024 resume, and the Cardinals and Saints are gettable the next two weeks.

• Week 6 was kind to the favorites, as they went 9-3 and the slate didn't have a major upset.

• Derrick Henry had an ordinary season opener at Kansas City, though he did get into the end zone. He's been a smash since, grading as the RB9, RB3, RB1, RB7 and RB3 (Monday pending) in half-point PPR formats. Henry has a touchdown in every game. His career-high for touchdowns is 18, set back in 2019; that's certainly an attainable goal now. He was the best second-round pick of the summer.

• Calvin Ridley couldn't secure any of his eight targets, putting him on a historical list of pass-game failure. It was a combination of Ridley drops and of course poor passes from Will Levis, who's gotten worse in his second year. It's a shame, because Tony Pollard is running well and the Tennessee defense is a plus unit. But no quarterback, no upside. Maybe the Titans did Mike Vrabel a favor when they let him go after 2023; he's someone I'd hire in a second, for any opening.

The only way I can think of to combat the injuries and the chaos of Fantasy Football is to start more players. That way, outlier performances and injuries mean less and the depth of your roster means more.

— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) October 13, 2024

• It was easily the worst Joe Flacco game of the year, with a piddly 5.0 YPA and a bunch of missed connotations on the field. Alas, two touchdown passes and a Colts victory, that's your deodorant. Indianapolis obviously has to play Anthony Richardson whenever he's 100% healthy, try to develop him. But anyone rostering receivers here hopes Flacco can hang on for as long as possible. Flacco doesn't always make the accurate throw, but he knows where to go with the ball. The game always feels fast for Richardson.

• The Cowboys finally steered towards CeeDee Lamb (season-high 14 targets), but a 7-89-0 line on that volume was disappointing. He still hasn't seen 100 yards yet. After the summer holdout, a slow start was reasonable to expect. But by mid-October, we want things smoothed out. The Cowboys get a well-placed Week 7 bye to figure things out, then travel to San Francisco and Atlanta.

• Justin Fields grabbed a QB6 tag this week without a touchdown pass — that's what 59 yards on the ground and two scores will do for you. Fields also scored an important win, improving Pittsburgh to 4-2 and likely keeping Russell Wilson on the bench. The Jets and Giants come to Pittsburgh the next two weeks, then the Steelers take the bye. George Pickens is still looking for his first touchdown, though the Steelers did target him eight times and there were a couple of narrow misses (one essentially a drop in the end zone). Najee Harris easily had his best game of the year (and finally scored), though Fields takes away a lot of his goal-line equity.

• It's not always pretty but Bo Nix has been QB8 in back-to-back weeks, with four touchdown passes and a consistent rushing element. He's been over 200 yards passing in 4-of-5 games; that wasn't a notable benchmark in the past, but it feels like one for 2024, especially when we're taking about a dual-threat quarterback. The passing volume has been fine. Courtland Sutton is back in the WR3 conservation, too.